Doubts Even Here

“In my mind, thoughts are becoming clearer
I'm watching every move you make
Counting time spent in observation
A single blow, a false mistake”

New Order

I should be doing backflips watching my screen. Gold and silver are validating my long-standing view that something was amiss in the value of assets. I began accumulating gold in 2003 and I have waited for this day. But instead of validation, I feel unease.

Usually when the market moves your way, you feel confirmation. This time, it feels like a warning. Is this a winning trade, or is this the sound of stress in the system? When safe assets rip, it usually means risk assets are standing on a trap door. Is it different this time?

One cause for my concern is coming from tech and AI. There has been an inversion of value from what we thought tech represented. Tech used to be the escape from the physical world. Giant margins, zero friction, just 1s and 0s. Limitless.

Today, the cloud and AI act like a hungry monster demanding copper, steel, and power.

The companies that were defined and valued as capital light have transformed into the most capital-intensive heavy industrials in history, yet they are still priced like software.

So what is the disconnect? Why is gold, which produces nothing except storage costs, outperforming the companies that are inventing the future? Could it be that the market is realizing the inputs of energy and materials are suddenly scarcer than the output of code?

We have to wonder and be cautious. Is this signal or noise?

Is the move out of first-layer AI upon us, and does it represent a simple rotation or a realization that the ROI calculation is broken?

Are the mega techs telling us that the only thing that matters for the foreseeable future is physical goods and commodities?

Am I seeing a structural shift because it’s actually happening, or because I’ve spent decades waiting for “real” assets to matter again?

I honestly do not know the answers to these questions. I only offer them as a way to think through the current environment and attempt to make sense of an asset allocation that is being validated by price, but not yet by anything else that gives me comfort in my thesis.

But even within this validation, there are signals that look less like a structural shift and more like a mania. Silver, for one. The price has exploded past $90 and the chart looks parabolic, a hockey stick pointed at the sky. I bought it last year thinking it would make a run toward its historical high just below $50. I had some signals to hold on, and it has added another 80% since that target.

But silver is not gold. Central banks are not accumulating physical silver as a reserve asset. That is what gives me comfort with gold. Silver has been a speculation, and the trend has been our friend. But when the music stops, this could become a wild ride.

So I remain cautious about the price signals. Fortunately, the investment framework I run keeps my head straight. I recognize that the future is uncertain and the best we can do is create a range of probabilistic outcomes. That is the humility the market requires.

The price action says I’m right. The history says be careful. Doubts even here.

---

I appreciate everyone who takes the time to read these essays. I started Wondering Aloud to give me a place to stress test my thinking and hopefully give readers a place to exercise their own. I plan to continue writing these posts as inspiration moves through me.

I’ve been spending more time lately working through these same questions at a different pace, away from the market tape. Some of it has taken the form of longer, more structured writing. An attempt to understand how complex, human-operated systems endure, and why they tend to become fragile when constraints are stripped away in the name of efficiency or progress. I don’t yet know where that work will land, but it’s been shaping how I’m seeing markets, bodies, organizations, and the trade-offs we keep making between speed and coherence. I’ll share more when it’s ready.

Thank you as always for reading Wondering Aloud.

Steve Barth, CFA

Wondering Macro LLC